The smaller the hold, the less juice overall, the better. And when oddsmakers adjust one side to -115 or -120 they will almost always counterbalance the other side with -105 or +100.īut in the moneyline market, the books commonly add more juice and create a larger hold for themselves, which means that typically there’s less overall value in that market for sports bettors.Īnd that matters, because that difference over time impacts your bank roll. In the spread market, we normally see only 20 cents of juice with -110 odds on both sides. Historically, bettors lose more - have a lower rate of return - in the moneyline market than the spread market. As I peruse the Bet Labs database (available via Action Network), I notice the following data going back to 2003.Ībbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML). We’re still hours away from Monday Night Football. MoneylinesĪs I’m writing this sentence, it’s Monday, October 3. So that’s the first thing: 20% of all NFL games is not an insignificant portion. When it comes to money, to things that are tangible, people immediately sense the impact of 20%.īut when it comes to probabilities, to thinking about whether something will or won’t happen, too many people act as if 20% is almost 0%. That 20% impacts your sports betting bankroll. ![]() Think about 20% if it’s applied to your salary, your taxes, your heat bill, your bar tab, etc. Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >įirst of all, people who act as if 20% is nothing - in my opinion - aren’t exhibiting enough respect for the weightiness that is one-fifth of anything. They’ll say something like, “The spread has come into play in only 20% of games this year, so if you like a team - especially an underdog - you might as well bet them on the moneyline, because the spread basically doesn’t matter. We’re at the point in the season where, like clockwork, people on Twitter start talking about how the spread is irrelevant in the NFL. Has a sports betting piece ever won a Pulitzer? It’s about time. I was sure to put the year in that last sentence, because I imagine that this piece will be an instant classic, one that people refer to and revisit for years to come, and I want everyone to be able to know, at a glance, when this soon-to-be masterpiece was written. These bets depend a lot on each other and specific outcomes to make a profit.We’re officially into Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season. However, you need to be extremely sure about your choice. Should you choose to use both, you can actually make a lot more cash. When comparing the moneyline vs point spread betting odds, keep in mind that each bet has it’s worth. What makes point spreads so valuable is the fact that NFL games go well over the double digits. This is done to eliminate a tie because most games won’t end with a 3.5 differential. So, you’ve probably noticed the fact that all point spreads feature half a point. For example, they’ll give the underdog a +3.5 and the favourite -3.5. Customarily, sportsbooks will handicap both teams to make bettors interested in the event.Ĭomparable to moneylines, point spreads will favour one side with unfavourable odds. These spreads are based on the possible score for one team to win or lose. Point spreads are wagers on the points scored by individual teams in the AFL and NFL. Since this is quite rare, moneyline betting rarely works out. Moreover, the odds don’t have a lot of value for punters unless you have an angle on the underdog. Straight up bets like moneylines don’t always pay out as much as you’d expect. However, it’s not that simple, especially in the NFL and AFL. Now, you might be tempted to take the underdog’s side because it’s easy money. So, if the underdog has positive odds of +150, you’d actually make a profit of $50 on a $100 wager. Therefore, AU bettors would have to stake $150 to win $100. A good example would be if the favourite had unfavourable odds of -150. The favourite to win will be favoured with a negative number, while the underdog will have favourable odds. ![]() ![]() When it comes to moneylines, all you need to decide is who will win. Unique Betting Product – So Far Undisputed
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